A guide to the Currency Forecast Tool

 

The latest offering from FX Week

 

For over 12 years we have been collecting currency forecasts from the industry’s leading dealers and using the data to produce weekly reports for our users.

For the first time we are consolidating this in to an interactive currency forecasting tool allowing users the flexibility of searching across weeks, months and years of data.

The tool is split into two parts – currency forecasts and historical performance.

Currency Forecasts

 

Forecasts are contributed every week by 26 dealers over five currency pairs.

Users are able to filter by set monthly indexes, by dealers and by currency pairs to build a picture of dealer’s projections.

The interactive tool offers a summary of the maximum and minimum forecast provided, as well as a general consensus.

Historical Performance

 

Users are able to track the accuracy of dealers’ projections vs actual spot rate using the historical performance section. Data can be tracked back to 2005 and follow a dealer, the consensus forecast and the actual spot rate.

A forecast ranking is also calculated and displayed in this section. The dealer ranking is calculated through an accuracy rating based on the average percentage divergence of each contributor’s aggregated currency forecasts.

Currency Forecasts – Step-by-step

Step 1. Select your Currency Pair and Forecast Horizon
(Note – this will now be your setting for both parts of the tool – you can change this as you need to)

Step 2. Select the dealer you wish to view from the drop-down menu.
There are 26 contributors to choose from.

The graph will now be populated to show –

 

  • The spot rate (as per the most recent Friday of the month)
  • The maximum and minimum forecasts
  • The consensus
  • How the dealer you have chosen forecasted

Step 3. All information from the Forecasts is set out in an easy-to-view table for quick scanning.
(Note – the forecast that appears here will match what has been selected in the Forecast Horizon at the top of the page)

Historical Performance – Step-by-step

Step 1. Select your Currency Pair and Forecast Horizon
(Note – this will now be your setting for both parts of the tool – you can change this as you need to)

Step 2. Select the dealer that you wish to track. This dropdown list will be made up of all companies that have contributed forecasts to FX Week – dating back to January 2005.

Step 3. Choose a time period (1m, 3m, 6m, YTD, 1y, ALL) or enter specific dates.

Step 4. Click on the ‘time slider’ to easily view set time periods. Shrink and expand the slider to drill in to specific dates.

Step 5. The Forecast Ranking table will populate in order of accuracy for your selected week. You can learn more about how the ranking are calculated here.